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My main complaint is that their metrics all seem netoriented want actual empirical data on lives saved. I tend to be skeptical of unintended consequence arguments. Almost all nonpharma medical research is done by practicing NHS docs. well fair enough. Are there wellestablished ways for actually doing this kind of farfuture probabilistic reasoning keep worrying that approach where you multiply out probabilities event literally does not work and can figure doesn because falls outside standard scientific practice lab natural experiments to try replicability results but again could just confusing myself | scintillion language:en

Then you introduce exactly one massively improbable outcome with important consequence of all but consequential things that could happen and frame question entirely terms improbablebut chosen because intended everything else is unintended. Much more complicated than the universe happened to have that set of parameters. ton says August at am Presumably those people did not think the reward was vanishingly unlikely. Take this comment for example

Onyomi says August at pm But one cannot be held morally culpable for doing more than physically . Carl Shulman says August at am You might want to clarify that it specifically something like work as typical doctor NHS rich country. Map of Local Meetup Groups Schedule Blogroll Embalmed Ones ANOIEAEIB Common Sense Atheism Less Wrong Last Psychiatrist Fabulous Alicornutopia Unsong Worm Innumerable Gwern nCategory Cafe Put Number It Random Critical Analysis ShtetlOptimized Statistical Modeling Unenumerated Mermaids MIRI Nothing Mere Merely Real Stray Dogs Anonymous Mugwump Follow Squirrel Marginal Revolution Nintil Pseudoerasmus Money Illusion Suckling Pigs Fredrik deBoer Unqualified Restaurant Reservations Whole Health Source Those Drawn With Very Fine Camel Hair Brush Existential Comics Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal That Are Included This Classification slatestarcodex SSC Discord Server Podcast Trained Hours Impacts Effective Altruism Forum GiveWell Jeff Kaufman Luke Muehlhauser Unit Caring Sky Distance Resemble Flies Agenty Duck Beeminder Nate Soares Belong Emperor Sam zdat Xenosystems Have Just Broken Flower Vase Armed Dangerous Bryan Caplan David Friedman Don Worry About Overcoming Bias Popehat SciHub Tremble Though They Mad Boring Old Aceso Under Glass Cognition Crazy Meds Gruntled Hinged Psychiatry Shrink Rap Various Others Algorithmic Lucidity Gene Expression Information Processing Melting Asphalt Meteuphoric Otium Ribbonfarm Rationalist Conspiracy Sideways View Things Weird Sun West Hunter Archives October September August July June May April March February January December November Full Stop Adding Zeroes Posted by Scott Alexander Dylan Matthews writes critique . It would have been the correct move for people to abstain from using premodern doctors but given information they actually had was probably rational use those . Andrew Clough says August at am To first approximation everyone who does cutting edge medical research went graduate school rather than

And electoral tie between Dan Erin happens Whateverland. x in favor of homeopathy. var Feedback function use strict tAttribute id genId . But spending on the order of MM was enough to track biggest asteroids and confirm none happen be nearterm collision course. walpolo says August at pm The social conflict from billion people dying off seems decently likely to cause nuclear war though. Fnord says August at pm This argument has nothing to do with saying things should never happen the future. I guess the heuristic No matter how much less likely you are to win Nobel Prize as proxy for making contribution xrisk given that starving of malaria if we save enough those people eventually probability one them makes significant approaches . Luke Somers says August at pm Isn that greatly mitigated if you prefer to obtain supplies locally vV am extent but then prices supply chain of stuff buy increase and these business may become less efficient since they effectively living off subsides. of the sign being positive gives your donation enormous expected value. Chalid says August at pm Holden Karnofsky Givewell cofounder has argued that giving to Against Malaria Foundation and similar charities was actually the best way reduce xrisk by increasing world present future human capital such donations improve humanity ability respond xrisks may emerge